Manchester Utd vs Liverpool

Firstly, there are people out there saying “But Liverpool are in terrific form at the moment – they’ve won their last two games 4-1 and 3-0!”. And, while they are correct, let’s not forget that they were both at Anfield, and they were against Porstmouth and Lille respectively (they couldn’t even prevent Portsmouth from scoring). Coming to Old Trafford against a Utd team who are on the best form they’ve seen in a long time, and Rooney smack in the middle of what is probably the best form of his life, is a completely different proposition all together. I can see United taking 3 points here easily, and for some reason the asian handicap market on Bet365 offers a much higher price than the straight win, despite being essentially the same bet. I also think bookies STILL, somehow, aren’t pricing Rooney short enough in the goalscorer markets. How can you still offer 4.00 on him to score first? If you took even these shortened odds every game of the season I think you’d be showing a very tidy profit by May.

Man Utd -0.5 @ 1.83 with Bet365 – 8 points (Returned 14.64)

Rooney to score first @ 4.00 with bet365 – 3 points (Returned 0)

Man Utd 3-0 @ 13.00 with Bet365 – 1 point (Returned 0)

Total Stake: 12 points

Total Return: 14.64

Total Profit: + 2.64

Man Utd are on fire at the moment and nothing short of a comfortable victory will be good enough for Sir Alex. Rooney is on the form of his life and he has a great chance of getting on the scoresheet on Saturday. Fulham are just back from a difficult trip to Italy where they were easily taken care of 3-1 by Juventus, so morale will be low, and there’s nothing like a trip to Old Trafford a few days later to make things worse for them. At Craven Cottage Fulham might have had a sporting chance at a point, but up in Manchester, there’s only one thing that can happen.

Man Utd -1.5 @ 1.75 with Bet365 – 10 points (Returned 17.5)
Rooney to score first @ 3.75 with Bet365 – 5 points (Returned 18.75)

Sunderland vs Manchester City

I was expecting to see Man City slightly odds on here, so was very happy to see the 2.25 available on Betfair. Yes, Sunderland had a great 4-0 victory midweek, but that was their first victory in 3 or 4 months and it was against a very poor travelling Bolton side. Man City still have a couple of games in hand and if they keep up their premiership form, they can start to pull away from Liverpool and Spurs and have a real shot at securing that much sought-after 4th Champions League place. I’m pretty confident City win this game more than 50% of the time.

Man City @ 2.25 with Betfair – 4 points (Returned 0)

Total Stake: 19 points

Total Return: 36.25

Total Profit: + 17.25

Crystal Palace vs Bristol City

Just going off very recent form here really. Palace reacted very well to losing Neil Warnock with a great victory at the weekend, whereas City were taken apart by Doncaster, and they now have to travel again to Crystal Palace a few days later. This is a great chance for Palace to jump up the table and put some room between them and relegation, and I can see them taking full advantage of it at home tonight.

Crystal Palace @ 1.95 with Bet365 – 6 points (Returned 0)

Peterborough vs Sheff Utd

Tonight, Sheffield United travel to rock-bottom Peterborough, and this game represents a great chance for them to start making some ground up and getting back into the playoff places. Peterborough are on a mini run of form recently, but it’s not enough for them to avoid almost certain relegation, and I don’t think they’ll be motivated enough to avoid losing to United.

Sheff Utd @ 2.30 with Bet365 – 5 points (Returned 0)

Watford vs Swansea

The home side Watford will want to avoid losing here as they are hovering dangerously above the relegation zone. They won’t want to over-extend themselves against a team very capable of getting results away from home, and so will probably settle for a point. Swansea have also drawn almost half of all their away games this season, so it’s likely the points will be shared here.

Draw @ 3.25 with Bet365 – 4 points (Returned 0)

Ipswich vs Cardiff

Going purely on the stats here – a draw looks the most likely result by far as Ipswich have drawn 10 of their 16 home games this season. Like the Watford vs Swansea game, Ipswich will want to keep putting points on the board to stay above the relegation zone while Cardiff in their current form probably aren’t quite capable of taking all 3 points tonight. I think this game is definitely drawn more than once every 3 games, so surely a good value bet at 3.2.

Draw @ 3.20 with Bet365 – 4 points (Returned 0)

Total Stake: 19 points

Total Return: 0 points

Total Profit: -19 points

Although I think Bolton are a really nice price at 3.9 coming off the back of terrific away win to West Ham at the weekend, I can’t really see this being much else other than a draw. After a good first half of the season Sunderland have been struggling, even at home, and have drawn 4 of their last at the Stadium of Light. Bolton’s away record hasn’t been that great, but have drawn two and won two of their last 6. Sunderland also have some injury problems and will be without a few first choice midfielders, so I can see this being a low-scoring scrappy game, most likely 0-0 or 1-1.

Draw @ 3.40 with Betfair – 4 points (Returned 0)

Portsmouth vs Birmingham

Portsmouth are a weakened side tonight as they are without Yebda, Boateng and Utaka. Birmingham are now safe in the knowledge that they’ve hit their 40 point survival target and can play the rest of the season without the added pressure of being threatened with relegation. I think Birmingham will come out strongly this evening and will be looking for revenge for their FA Cup defeat at the weekend, and they’ll also want to keep pushing hard for the outside chance of winning a European place, as they now have nothing to lose. I think 3.4 is terrific value for a top 10 side against rock-bottom who are all but guaranteed to be relegated.

Birmingham @ 3.40 with Betfair – 7 points (Returned 23.8)

Total stake: 11 points

Total Return: 23.8 points

Total Profit: +12.8 points

Only one game in League One tonight, but luckily I have a pretty good feeling about it:

Colchester vs Brighton

For starters, the price on Colchester in this game is too short here so I’m not interested in that. Brighton have been playing some decent football recently and I’m very confident they’ll get something out of this game. Their away form this season has been impressive, and arguably better than their home form – they’ve only lost four away games all season. I’m not quite confident enough to say that they’ll take all 3 points, but I think 3.40 for the draw represents some excellent value, as I think this game will be drawn more like 35-40% of the time.

Colchester vs Brighton DRAW @ 3.40 – 6 points with Bet365 (Returned 20.4)

Total Stake: 6 points

Total Return: 20.4 points

Total Profit: +14.4 points

West Ham vs Bolton Wanderers

Scott Parker is going to get booked in this game. He’s on 9 bookings currently and, as I’m sure you’re all aware, 10 bookings brings a 2 match ban. Guess who West Ham have in their next 2 games? Arsenal and Chelsea. After this, they have a couple of must-win games which they’ll really need Parker for. I have a feeling around the 80th minute he’ll find himself putting in a dodgy challenge, or perhaps sticking his arm in the direction of the ball.
Scott Parker to be shown a card at any time – 2.95 @ Expekt – 6 points (Returned 0 points)

Total Stake: 6 points

Total Return: 0 points

Total Profit: -6 points

England vs Egypt (1.36) (Won 3-1)

The English press (and the fans) won’t let Capello away with anything other than a firm win here, and there are still a bunch of players who will be playing their socks off trying to get a seat on the plane to South Africa this summer. It looks like Wayne Rooney will be fit to play and I have no doubt he’ll be on the scoresheet if he does. England usually take these friendlies pretty seriously and almost always come away with a result, and I can’t see much different happening here.

New Zealand vs Mexico (1.25) (Won 0-2)

This is down as a home game for New Zealand, but it’s actually being played in Los Angeles, which is as close to a home game for Mexico as they could ask for. A weakened New Zealand team will have had a long awkward flight with only a day or two to prepare for the game, and this is about as nailed on a Mexico win as I’d ever be prepared to venture.

Portugal vs China (1.20) (Won 2-0)

Portugal at home should have no problems seeing off the travelling Chinese team. They will take this game very seriously as they try to prepare for facing North Korea in the World Cup this summer, and they’ll want to put on a good show for the home fans. Add to this the fact that China have a couple of their top players missing in Yang Hao and Yang Zhi, and we should be looking at a very comfortable Portuguese victory.

Treble @ 2.04 with Bet365 – 7 points (Returned 14.28)

Total Stake: 7 points

Total Return: 14.28 points

Total Profit: 7.28 points

With only a couple of games from League 1, I decided to look at the six League 2 fixtures on offer for Tuesday’s games, and I found two fixtures which interested me:

Notts County vs Macclesfield

Notts County are high on new-manager-syndrome at the moment, and are also coming off the back of a 5-0 victory at the expense of Hereford on Saturday. While this was a flattering scoreline, it would still have been a very comfortable victory without the drama of the last 2 or 3 minutes. County will be looking to take advantage of their many games in hand and Steve Cotterill will want to push really hard for automatic promotion. I see them continuing their winning ways in Tuesday’s game against Macclesfield with a victory by 2 or 3 goals, and even the 1.44 available on Bet365 looks quite generous for an in-form County team at home.

Notts County @ 1.44 with Betfair – 8 points (Returned 11.52)

Aldershot vs Bradford

Aldershot had a very decent away win this past weekend at Chesterfield, but their home form has been lacking recently, only securing 1 win from their last 5 home games. Bradford are doing well under Peter Taylor and are on a good mini-run of form, including an impressive 3-1 away win at Rochdale seven days ago. They should be oozing confidence coming into this game and I think they have a real chance of taking all 3 points at the Recreation Ground, so I’m going to have a small piece of Bradford at a decent price.

Bradford @ 3.25 with Bet365 – 3 points (Returned 0 points)

Total Stake: 11 points

Total Return: 11.52 points

Total Profit: +0.52 points

Three bets to speak of this weekend:

Burnley vs Portsmouth – When something major is happening off the pitch, such as a new manager coming in, or a big takeover, I usually try to stay away from any betting involving that team. With Portsmouth entering administration today and being almost certainly doomed to life in the Championship next season – how will they respond? Now that the pressure is essentially off, will they come out with a nothing to lose attitude, or will the last bit of fight they had in them have seeped away along with the 9 points? I certainly don’t think evens is a bad price on a Burnley side who are still very much in the fight for survival, and are relying on their home form to keep them from joining Pompey next season.

Burnley win @ 2.00 with Bet365 – 4 points (Returned 0)

Liverpool vs Blackburn Rovers – Speaking of unpredictable, who knows which Liverpool team will show up this weekend? They only have a 3 day break since playing in Romania on Thursday night, although they had a decent game out there. Blackburn come off the back of a solid 3-0 home win and have had a week to recover, although they will be without captain Nelsen who is out with a knee injury. There’s every chance Liverpool will take this one down 1-0 or 2-0, but I think 1.36 is a horribly short price to be backing them to do so. Liverpool’s talents for drawing 0-0 in games they should be winning tempts me into backing the draw at a very reasonable price.

Draw @ 4.75 with Bet365 – 3 points (Returned 0)

Birmingham City vs Wigan Athletic – Wigan have been in extremely poor form recently – 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 8 games, which includes a couple of home fixtures you’d really expect them to win. Birmingham haven’t been quite as strong recently, although have been playing much better football than Wigan, and are a tough side to beat at home. I think come next weekend, Wigan will still be looking for their first win in 10 games, and the 1.90 available on Birmingham is good value.

Birmingham win @ 1.90 with Bet365 – 9 points (Returned 17.1)

Total Stake: 16 points

Total Return: 17.1 points

Total Profit: +1.1 points