Just focusing on one bet this weekend, and it’s the biggest match of the week:

Manchester Utd vs Liverpool

Firstly, there are people out there saying “But Liverpool are in terrific form at the moment – they’ve won their last two games 4-1 and 3-0!”. And, while they are correct, let’s not forget that they were both at Anfield, and they were against Porstmouth and Lille respectively (they couldn’t even prevent Portsmouth from scoring). Coming to Old Trafford against a Utd team who are on the best form they’ve seen in a long time, and Rooney smack in the middle of what is probably the best form of his life, is a completely different proposition all together. I can see United taking 3 points here easily, and for some reason the asian handicap market on Bet365 offers a much higher price than the straight win, despite being essentially the same bet. I also think bookies STILL, somehow, aren’t pricing Rooney short enough in the goalscorer markets. How can you still offer 4.00 on him to score first? If you took even these shortened odds every game of the season I think you’d be showing a very tidy profit by May.

Man Utd -0.5 @ 1.83 with Bet365 – 8 points (Returned 14.64)

Rooney to score first @ 4.00 with bet365 – 3 points (Returned 0)

Man Utd 3-0 @ 13.00 with Bet365 – 1 point (Returned 0)

Total Stake: 12 points

Total Return: 14.64

Total Profit: + 2.64

Three bets to speak of this weekend:

Burnley vs Portsmouth – When something major is happening off the pitch, such as a new manager coming in, or a big takeover, I usually try to stay away from any betting involving that team. With Portsmouth entering administration today and being almost certainly doomed to life in the Championship next season – how will they respond? Now that the pressure is essentially off, will they come out with a nothing to lose attitude, or will the last bit of fight they had in them have seeped away along with the 9 points? I certainly don’t think evens is a bad price on a Burnley side who are still very much in the fight for survival, and are relying on their home form to keep them from joining Pompey next season.

Burnley win @ 2.00 with Bet365 – 4 points (Returned 0)

Liverpool vs Blackburn Rovers – Speaking of unpredictable, who knows which Liverpool team will show up this weekend? They only have a 3 day break since playing in Romania on Thursday night, although they had a decent game out there. Blackburn come off the back of a solid 3-0 home win and have had a week to recover, although they will be without captain Nelsen who is out with a knee injury. There’s every chance Liverpool will take this one down 1-0 or 2-0, but I think 1.36 is a horribly short price to be backing them to do so. Liverpool’s talents for drawing 0-0 in games they should be winning tempts me into backing the draw at a very reasonable price.

Draw @ 4.75 with Bet365 – 3 points (Returned 0)

Birmingham City vs Wigan Athletic – Wigan have been in extremely poor form recently – 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 8 games, which includes a couple of home fixtures you’d really expect them to win. Birmingham haven’t been quite as strong recently, although have been playing much better football than Wigan, and are a tough side to beat at home. I think come next weekend, Wigan will still be looking for their first win in 10 games, and the 1.90 available on Birmingham is good value.

Birmingham win @ 1.90 with Bet365 – 9 points (Returned 17.1)

Total Stake: 16 points

Total Return: 17.1 points

Total Profit: +1.1 points