Just focusing on one bet this weekend, and it’s the biggest match of the week:

Manchester Utd vs Liverpool

Firstly, there are people out there saying “But Liverpool are in terrific form at the moment – they’ve won their last two games 4-1 and 3-0!”. And, while they are correct, let’s not forget that they were both at Anfield, and they were against Porstmouth and Lille respectively (they couldn’t even prevent Portsmouth from scoring). Coming to Old Trafford against a Utd team who are on the best form they’ve seen in a long time, and Rooney smack in the middle of what is probably the best form of his life, is a completely different proposition all together. I can see United taking 3 points here easily, and for some reason the asian handicap market on Bet365 offers a much higher price than the straight win, despite being essentially the same bet. I also think bookies STILL, somehow, aren’t pricing Rooney short enough in the goalscorer markets. How can you still offer 4.00 on him to score first? If you took even these shortened odds every game of the season I think you’d be showing a very tidy profit by May.

Man Utd -0.5 @ 1.83 with Bet365 – 8 points (Returned 14.64)

Rooney to score first @ 4.00 with bet365 – 3 points (Returned 0)

Man Utd 3-0 @ 13.00 with Bet365 – 1 point (Returned 0)

Total Stake: 12 points

Total Return: 14.64

Total Profit: + 2.64

Manchester Utd vs Fulham

Man Utd are on fire at the moment and nothing short of a comfortable victory will be good enough for Sir Alex. Rooney is on the form of his life and he has a great chance of getting on the scoresheet on Saturday. Fulham are just back from a difficult trip to Italy where they were easily taken care of 3-1 by Juventus, so morale will be low, and there’s nothing like a trip to Old Trafford a few days later to make things worse for them. At Craven Cottage Fulham might have had a sporting chance at a point, but up in Manchester, there’s only one thing that can happen.

Man Utd -1.5 @ 1.75 with Bet365 – 10 points (Returned 17.5)
Rooney to score first @ 3.75 with Bet365 – 5 points (Returned 18.75)

Sunderland vs Manchester City

I was expecting to see Man City slightly odds on here, so was very happy to see the 2.25 available on Betfair. Yes, Sunderland had a great 4-0 victory midweek, but that was their first victory in 3 or 4 months and it was against a very poor travelling Bolton side. Man City still have a couple of games in hand and if they keep up their premiership form, they can start to pull away from Liverpool and Spurs and have a real shot at securing that much sought-after 4th Champions League place. I’m pretty confident City win this game more than 50% of the time.

Man City @ 2.25 with Betfair – 4 points (Returned 0)

Total Stake: 19 points

Total Return: 36.25

Total Profit: + 17.25

Sunderland vs Bolton

Although I think Bolton are a really nice price at 3.9 coming off the back of terrific away win to West Ham at the weekend, I can’t really see this being much else other than a draw. After a good first half of the season Sunderland have been struggling, even at home, and have drawn 4 of their last at the Stadium of Light. Bolton’s away record hasn’t been that great, but have drawn two and won two of their last 6. Sunderland also have some injury problems and will be without a few first choice midfielders, so I can see this being a low-scoring scrappy game, most likely 0-0 or 1-1.

Draw @ 3.40 with Betfair – 4 points (Returned 0)

Portsmouth vs Birmingham

Portsmouth are a weakened side tonight as they are without Yebda, Boateng and Utaka. Birmingham are now safe in the knowledge that they’ve hit their 40 point survival target and can play the rest of the season without the added pressure of being threatened with relegation. I think Birmingham will come out strongly this evening and will be looking for revenge for their FA Cup defeat at the weekend, and they’ll also want to keep pushing hard for the outside chance of winning a European place, as they now have nothing to lose. I think 3.4 is terrific value for a top 10 side against rock-bottom who are all but guaranteed to be relegated.

Birmingham @ 3.40 with Betfair – 7 points (Returned 23.8)

Total stake: 11 points

Total Return: 23.8 points

Total Profit: +12.8 points

Just one bet for you this week, but it’s an amazing price for something which is as close to guaranteed as you can get:

West Ham vs Bolton Wanderers

Scott Parker is going to get booked in this game. He’s on 9 bookings currently and, as I’m sure you’re all aware, 10 bookings brings a 2 match ban. Guess who West Ham have in their next 2 games? Arsenal and Chelsea. After this, they have a couple of must-win games which they’ll really need Parker for. I have a feeling around the 80th minute he’ll find himself putting in a dodgy challenge, or perhaps sticking his arm in the direction of the ball.
Scott Parker to be shown a card at any time – 2.95 @ Expekt – 6 points (Returned 0 points)

Total Stake: 6 points

Total Return: 0 points

Total Profit: -6 points

Three bets to speak of this weekend:

Burnley vs Portsmouth – When something major is happening off the pitch, such as a new manager coming in, or a big takeover, I usually try to stay away from any betting involving that team. With Portsmouth entering administration today and being almost certainly doomed to life in the Championship next season – how will they respond? Now that the pressure is essentially off, will they come out with a nothing to lose attitude, or will the last bit of fight they had in them have seeped away along with the 9 points? I certainly don’t think evens is a bad price on a Burnley side who are still very much in the fight for survival, and are relying on their home form to keep them from joining Pompey next season.

Burnley win @ 2.00 with Bet365 – 4 points (Returned 0)

Liverpool vs Blackburn Rovers – Speaking of unpredictable, who knows which Liverpool team will show up this weekend? They only have a 3 day break since playing in Romania on Thursday night, although they had a decent game out there. Blackburn come off the back of a solid 3-0 home win and have had a week to recover, although they will be without captain Nelsen who is out with a knee injury. There’s every chance Liverpool will take this one down 1-0 or 2-0, but I think 1.36 is a horribly short price to be backing them to do so. Liverpool’s talents for drawing 0-0 in games they should be winning tempts me into backing the draw at a very reasonable price.

Draw @ 4.75 with Bet365 – 3 points (Returned 0)

Birmingham City vs Wigan Athletic – Wigan have been in extremely poor form recently – 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 8 games, which includes a couple of home fixtures you’d really expect them to win. Birmingham haven’t been quite as strong recently, although have been playing much better football than Wigan, and are a tough side to beat at home. I think come next weekend, Wigan will still be looking for their first win in 10 games, and the 1.90 available on Birmingham is good value.

Birmingham win @ 1.90 with Bet365 – 9 points (Returned 17.1)

Total Stake: 16 points

Total Return: 17.1 points

Total Profit: +1.1 points